Can Unmanned Drones Target U.S. Cities?

Some experts say that even if the UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) do get assembled for use in the US, the possibility that they could cause widespread damage are low. In order to go undetected in the air, the UAVs would have to be very small and they would not be able to carry too much of a harmful substance. They would also have to fly over densely populated areas if they want to achieve maximum personnel casualties. But because many large metropolitan areas, such as New York, have air traffic watchers keeping an eye out for any planes that have not filed a flight plan, the UAVs would probably not succeed in a large-city attack. But smaller cities and towns would be more vulnerable.

According to US intelligence, terrorists may be planning a chemical or biological attack on American cities by using remote-controlled "drone" planes that are equipped with GPS tracking maps. An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) program could be a real problem for homeland defense because some UAVs are easy to conceal and hard to detect using radar. Some even think that these drones have already been transported to the US to be used in an upcoming attack.

As soon as Jan 2004, pilotless "sniffer-drone" aircraft could be flying above our cities searching for the first whiff of a chemical attack. The system is designed for use with remote-controlled drones about the size of a large model airplane to provide early warnings of gas attacks. If a mysterious plume over a city follows the event of a terrorist attack, the drone aircraft could be sent in first to test the air and make sure it's safe before emergency workers are sent in. Sandia National Laboratories is testing the newly developed ultra-lightweight sensors, which are about the size of a domino, to detect nerve gas and blister agents. The chemical detector named the SnifferSTAR system is sensitive to things like tabun, mustard gas, and sarin. But it will not detect bacteria or viruses. The sensors absorb and concentrate the air samples before releasing them over thin polymer stripes that bind with any noxious agent present. The unit requires little power to operate, offers rapid analysis and can take a sample every 20 seconds.

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The Pioneer UAV which was used in Gulf War had many problems, but the newer drones like the Predator and the Global Hawk are a viable option and a new technological tool for battlefield commanders. Their primary use is for reconnaissance but armed UAVs have begun to find their way into the US arsenal.

Northrop Grumman Corporation's Integrated Systems sector delivered the seventh Global Hawk unmanned reconnaissance system to the US Air Force on Feb. 14th following the it's successful first flight. The vehicle flew a three-hour checkout mission over the Edwards Air Force Base test range to evaluate system performance prior to delivery. This drone is the final one to be delivered under the program's advanced concept technology demonstration phase. Northrop Grumman is scheduled to deliver two production vehicles later this year. Since 1995, Northrop Grumman has received more than $1.6 billion in contracts for Global Hawk design, development, testing and production. The Air Force has purchased 72 Predators Northrop Grumman.for approximately $5 million. The Predator missile has been used with deadly effectiveness in the war on terrorism. Last year, six suspected al-Qaeda members , were killed when a remote controlled Predator fired a Hellfire missile at a car in Yemen.

Schrick GmbH, a German company, has developed a prototype twin-cylinder diesel engine for drone aircraft. It weighs 53 lbs. and produces 46 horsepower, giving it a world record for power density in its class.

South Africa's Denel Private Ltd .would like to win a contract bid to supply India with with its main UAV, the Seeker II. The drone features a 250-kilometer radius surveillance range with an 18,000 foot service ceiling. The missle is packed with a 50 kg multi-mission payload.

Military analysts inside the Pentagon believe that while Iraq's air force might be able to snag a slow-moving, low-flying drone, it would serve as little more than an annoyance in any coming war with the United States. But what about the possibility of Iraq manufacturing their own aircraft or purchasing them on the open market? Many officials believe the threat is real and should be taken more seriously. After September 11th, there was a report about Usama bin Laden's Al Qaeda network being trained to conduct raids through air vehicles outfitted with spray tanks. Some terrorists had definitely looked into the possibility of training on the aerial UAVs. Recently, six members of Hamas were killed in a powerful blast, apparently while preparing an explosive-laden pilotless drone aircraft which was to be used for an attack on Israeli soldiers. There are also unconfirmed reports from Israel that Palestinian agents have begun to purchases huge quantities of model aircraft from suppliers in Europe and are hoping to develop UAVs for attacks across the border of Gaza. The drone is just one of many new technologies terrorists would like to use against their enemies.

UAVs are flown from a ground station van by a "pilot" with a joystick and monitoring screens, including one giving the view from a color TV camera in the aircraft's nose. Each aircraft has an infrared camera for poor light or night missions, and radar to scan through smoke, clouds or haze. They fly at no more than 140 mph but can stay airborne for nearly 24 hours at a time, cruising at up to 25,000 ft. Their slow speed makes them vulnerable to anti-aircraft fire. An Iraqi aircraft shot down an unmanned Predator reconnaissance drone over southern Iraq on On December 23rd and at least two other drones have been shot down over the “no-fly zones” in the past two years.

Secretary of State Colin Powell said earlier this month, “Iraq has been working on a variety of UAVs for more than a decade. This effort has included attempts to modify for unmanned flight the MiG21 and with greater success an aircraft called the L29. However, Iraq is now concentrating on smaller UAVs, such as this (image)... well suited for dispensing chemical and biological weapons. Delivering his deadly nerve agents has been one of Saddam’s challenges, but a small UAV, capable of flying well beyond Iraq’s borders, and difficult to detect, might have produced the answer to his problem."

Last June, US intelligence sources claim that they detected one of Iraq's newest UAVs traveling 310 miles "nonstop on autopilot" in a racetrack pattern. In their arms declaration to the U.N., Iraq claims that its UAVs only have a 50 mile range. There is solid intelligence that Iraq has tested several different types of sprayers on these drones to disperse biological and chemical weapons. Iraq has been producing VX nerve agent, anthrax, botulism toxin, ricin and other bugs for years and has failed to account for more than 500 artillery shells filled with mustard gas which it used in its war with Iran. The inspectors found several empty chemical warheads in immaculate condition recently and the presumption that Saddam has destroyed these materials is probably not accurate. To deliver deliver chemical and biological weapons, Iraq has developed several unmanned aerial vehicle prototypes . The most famous one is a retrofitted Mig-21 with extra fuel tanks and four spray canisters. It was definitely not used for crop dusting.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld warned that Iraq's chemical and biological weapons are far more advanced today than during the Gulf War and he believes that these remote-controlled planes are a threat to Americans. In a speech at in a speech to the Hoover Institution, he stated that smallpox, anthrax and other biochemical threats are "more lethal and dangerous" than in 1991. He also referred to a simulation exercise conducted at Johns Hopkins University called the Dark Winter. It was theorized that when anthrax was placed in three locations in the U.S., the death toll in a few months could number in the hundreds of thousands, maybe as high as a million. He said, "They are perfectly capable of being equipped with spraying an aerosol-type capabilities. They can today with global position systems, GPS, and the kinds of maps that one can buy readily, these types of things can be purchased and used and guided and directed with great precision and capable of dispensing those kinds of weapons." Iraq is believed to have a number of the so-called UAVs, of different types, and that they train with them. Rumsfeld said the planes could be guided or preprogrammed to travel hundreds of kilometers.

Technology of these aircraft continues to develop and they become smarter and harder to detect. Israel Aircraft Industries, an Israeli aircraft manufacturer, is building a reconnaissance airplane with wings the size of a credit card. The 100-gram drone will be equipped with tiny cameras and other communication equipment. The plane has been thrown by hand and flown for up to 20 minutes in test flights and cannot be picked up by radar.

To make matters worse in the future, the Air Force Research Laboratory has funded at least two feasibility studies on nuclear-powered versions of the Northrop-Grumman Global Hawk UAV. The nuclear drone aircraft could be in the air for months without refueling and strike targets when they come into its sights. It would generate thrust by using the energy of gamma rays to produce a jet of heated air. Just last week, the Pentagon allocated $1 billion for further development of both armed and unarmed UAVs of the 2004 budget.

October 11, 2002, Northrop Grumman's Hunter UAV scored a perfect four out of four hits using BAT smart munition. The trial resulted in kills on manoeuvring armoured vehicles. BAT is a lightweight munition that uses a parachute to drop to operational height before precision the guidance takes over to send the individual sub-munitions into a target vehicle.

A super-secret weapon called the "lightning bolt" generator was recently developed for the US Air Force. It is capable of focusing millions of watts of microwave energy in a tightly controlled beam. The generator, developed by scientists working in New Mexico, would fry the computers that a commander needs to control its army and launch its missiles. US reports say that it would be carried to battle by large unmanned aircraft such as the Global Hawk. The weapon flashes intense beams of energy, but the pulse of energy is of such short duration that nearby humans would be unaffected.

Ten new prototypes of UAVs, are ready for use by the 1st Marine Division, now deployed in Kuwait and on ships in the Persian Gulf. They are the size of a large bird and can be controlled by troops on the battlefield.

The Army is pursuing four basic approaches to UAVs; small backpackable vehicles; small ‘organic’ vehicles; tactical UAVs such as the Shadow TUAV, and extended range vehicles.

Frontier Systems A160 Hummingbird, an UAV designed with rotary blades is now designed with four blades instead of three. They first flight of the four bladed version occured on November 27, 2002. The system uses a unique speed-changeable rotor blade and has been error prone. The earlier three-bladed configuration resulted two crashes during testing.

The US Army is also testing their latest UAV, the Shadow 200, which is small and easy to move. In fact, three of them can fit inside a Hum-V and the launcher can be attached to the back of the vehicle. They are launched into the sky quickly and go from zero to seventy knots in less than a second. The Army plans to buy 164 of them at a cost of $450,000.00 each despite the recent crash on Feb 7th of the unmanned aerial vehicle at Ft. Huachuca. The Shadow 200 crashed on the runway after engine failure, and fortunately, nobody was injured. The Shadow instructor training program is on hold while investigators try to determine what went wrong.

In January of 2003, A US Congressional Research Service report suggests replacing manned fighters flying combat air patrols (CAP) over US cities with UAVs armed with air-to-air missiles as a cost saving move. There are currently 100 fighters on city CAP at the moment costing the US taxpayer around $100 million every month. So, in the name of cheaper security, US civilian airspace would be patrolled by armed UAVs over which the FAA might have no authority whatsoever.

In October 2003, President Bush declared that , "We've also discovered through intelligence that Iraq has a growing fleet of manned and unmanned aerial vehicles that could be used to disperse chemical and biological weapons across broad areas. We're concerned that Iraq is exploring ways of using these UAVs for missions targeting the United States."

The UAV is already used for spying missions in the Middle East. On Feb 4th, A US unmanned Predator drone was brought down by antiaircraft missiles but no one has yet claimed responsibility for the incident. The Pakistani unmanned drones, named the Pak, have twice been observed entering Indian airspace over Kashmir from Pakistan. Indian has recently purchased large arms supplies including unmanned drone aircraft from Israel. Both sides often report intrusions by unmanned spy planes into each other's air space and Pakistan released a statement claiming that last year about 200 such violations occurred. With tensions high on both sides of that region, and the continuing conflict in Afghanistan, how long will it be before Islamic fundamentals obtain these potential weapons?

Updated February 26, 2003